Energy Systems Integration Newsletter: December 2022

In this edition, NREL releases the 2022 Standard Scenarios, a collaboration with the U.S. Air Force takes electric aircraft research to new heights, the first Clean Energy Cybersecurity Accelerator cohort begins the technical assessments of their proposed cybersecurity solutions in the Advanced Research on Integrated Energy Systems cyber range, and more.

The 2022 Standard Scenarios Are Now Available

NREL has released the 2022 Standard Scenarios, a suite of forward-looking scenarios of the U.S. electricity sector.

This year’s Standard Scenarios include 70 scenarios—up from 50 last year. Notably, the analysis reflects the energy provisions of the landmark Inflation Reduction Act and includes new scenarios that explore the decarbonization of the U.S. electricity sector by 2035.

The annual release includes an NREL technical report with key results and outcomes that can be viewed and downloaded through the NREL Scenario Viewer. Read more about the 2022 Standard Scenarios.

Technology Accelerator for Electric Aircraft Leans on NREL for Scientific Leadership

Electric aviation is attracting interest, including from the U.S. Air Force, which launched a technology accelerating project that targets electric aircraft breakthroughs as part of its AFWERX program. NREL is contributing to the project with expert guidance and technical evaluation of project ideas. NREL’s support will help smaller companies develop their products and allow NREL to further develop its research capabilities in sustainable fuels, cybersecurity of charging infrastructure, and more.

Read the full story about NREL’s partnership with the U.S. Air Force for sustainable aviation.

First Clean Energy Cybersecurity Accelerator Participants Begin Technical Assessment

Renewable energy technologies are a critical component of decarbonization, and there’s an urgent need to build cybersecurity into these devices to stay ahead of evolving threats. To understand and address security gaps in energy systems, NREL and the Department of Energy (DOE) launched the Clean Energy Cybersecurity Accelerator—a technology partnership of federal experts, industry partners, and innovators. The accelerator’s first cohort members—Blue Ridge Networks, Sierra Nevada Corp., and Xage—recently began technical assessments of their proposed solutions to security gaps in the Advanced Research on Integrated Energy Systems (ARIES) cyber range. At the end of the cohort cycle, participants will present their solutions to utilities with the goal to make an immediate impact.

Read the news release to learn more about the Clean Energy Cybersecurity Accelerator and the first cohort’s proposed solutions.

Symphonic Electronics: NREL Engineers Use Music To Illustrate Grid Stability

For NREL engineers who try to harmonize renewable generation on the grid, the waveforms and frequencies they see when analyzing grid stability inspired a musical take on their research. Instead of dispatching power signals into the hardware, the engineers submitted famous melodies and movie soundtracks—audio frequencies—causing the hardware to hum metallic-sounding tunes. These singing inverters and load banks demonstrate literal grid harmony and draw attention to NREL’s unique capabilities in validating grid stability for power systems with more electronics and renewables.

Read the story about singing inverters.

PR100 1-Year Progress Update Public Webinar

You’re invited to join an upcoming DOE webinar for a progress update on the Puerto Rico Grid Resilience and Transition to 100% Renewable Energy (PR100), a stakeholder-informed study to chart pathways to clean, resilient, and affordable energy for all of Puerto Rico by 2050. The webinar will feature remarks from Energy Secretary Jennifer M. Granholm, Federal Emergency Management Agency Administrator Deanne Criswell, and Puerto Rico Governor Pedro Pierluisi.

This Year’s Top News Stories and Downloaded Publications

News Stories

Thank you for subscribing to NREL’s Energy Systems Integration Newsletter. A lot has happened this past year. To recap, we rounded up our top stories from 2022 in one can’t-miss list:

Publications

From Examining Supply-Side Options To Achieve 100% Clean Electricity by 2035 to the Storage Futures Study, NREL’s energy systems integration researchers had another busy year of publishing groundbreaking and impactful research. The directorate’s publications logged more than 314,000 downloads this past fiscal year. See our list of the top 10 downloaded publications from Fiscal Year 2022:

NREL Annual Holiday Message

As the year ends, we want to take a moment to reflect on our 2022 accomplishments. In a year marked by progress and growth, we returned to campus, welcomed new faces to our teams, invested in our infrastructure, established new global partnerships, and developed a renewed commitment to our mission.

From the entire NREL family, we extend our best wishes to all our family, friends, partners, and stakeholders. Please watch this special holiday message from NREL.

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What Is the Recipe for First Commercial Success for Clean Energy Technologies?

There is a lot to consider when moving clean energy technologies out of the lab and into the market—and the success rate varies.

To determine which key factors lead to successful commercialization, experts at the Joint Institute for Strategic Energy Analysis, NREL, and DOE analyzed four clean energy technology case studies. The findings revealed how to ensure new technologies will flourish.

In examining thin-film photovoltaic solar panels, wind turbines, dual-stage evaporators for refrigeration, and fuel cells for material handling equipment, three primary trends emerged for successful commercialization: public-private partnerships, appropriate alignment of government regulations, and timing between technology readiness and market opportunity.

Read more about the technology case studies.

NREL’s Rui Yang Featured in IEEE Electrification Magazine as Guest Editor

Distributed energy resources—such as electric vehicles, energy storage, and smart appliances—have the power to provide flexibility to power systems for improved grid reliability; however, most of these resources are behind the meter (BTM), located on customer premises. Grid-edge computing could unlock the benefits of BTM resources by enhancing visibility and controllability at the grid edge.

The December issue of IEEE Electrification Magazine provides insights into how grid-edge computing with BTM resources could help realize a clean energy future. NREL’s Rui Yang, a research manager in NREL’s Power Systems Engineering Center, serves as guest editor in the special issue. Through seven feature articles, researchers discuss the challenges and solutions for understanding BTM distributed energy resources and harnessing their capabilities through grid-edge computing.

Publications Roundup

Comparative Study of Wind Energy Potential Estimation Methods for Wind Sites in Togo and Benin (West Sub-Saharan Africa)

Wind speed distribution and energy potential are critical factors in selecting a suitable site for wind power plants. The Weibull distribution law has been extensively used to analyze the wind characteristics of candidate wind power plant sites and to estimate the available energy. This paper presents a comparative study of five wind energy resource assessment methods in West Sub-Saharan Africa. The authors investigated three numerical approaches to derive the distribution law of wind speeds and to optimally quantify the corresponding wind energy potential. Case study results indicated that the neural network-based methods yielded the most accurate distribution estimates and are the most recommended methods for the wind sites in Togo and Benin.

Demonstration and Evaluation of a Non-Invasive, Low-Cost, Strap-On Sensor for Natural Gas Meters

The U.S. General Services Administration is interested in installing internet-connected gas submeters to better understand gas consumption in its portfolio of buildings. The General Services Administration, in partnership with NREL, conducted a demonstration to assess the product features of a gas submeter, which was implemented at two separate General Services Administration facilities in Dallas, Texas. This demonstration evaluated hardware and software installations and integrations, data integrity and accuracy, and included an economic analysis. The product intends to streamline submeter deployments for gas and water by eliminating most hardware costs and allowing for easy integration of submetered data into other systems.

Distribution Capacity Expansion Planning: Current Practice, Opportunities, and Decision Support

The distribution utility industry is experiencing monumental shifts in consumer needs and expectations. Characterizing future native loads compared to net load demand for long-term capacity planning is especially difficult because consumers are increasingly adopting prosumer technologies. This paper is the culmination of five months of utility interviews coordinated by NREL and Kevala Inc., to better understand the current state, challenges, and opportunities in distribution capacity planning. The intent is to provide insights into distribution capacity planning needs for utilities and the increasing number of stakeholders involved—from state and regulatory agencies to community and solution providers—with an interest in increasing their understanding of the distribution capacity planning process.

Electricity Costs and Carbon Implications for CO2-to-Fuels in Selected Locations in 2030

With the increasing interest in converting carbon dioxide (CO2) to fuels and products to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to extend carbon from biogenic and other sources, the development of carbon capture and utilization (CO2U) technologies is crucial. The Markets, Resources, and Environmental and Energy Justice of CO2-to-Fuels Technologies project analyzes CO2U economic and resource requirements as well as sustainability, environmental, and energy justice metrics. This paper provides information on electricity purchase options, costs, and the respective marginal emissions for CO2U technologies in the short-term (2030) time frame. Analysis results will inform other projects within DOE’s CO2-to-Fuels Consortium and guide investment by government and industry in research and development.

Renewable Energy and Efficiency Technologies in Scenarios of U.S. Decarbonization in Two Types of Models: Comparison of GCAM Modeling and Sector-Specific Modeling

Energy system projections from quantitative models inform actions, including nearer-term and local decisions as well as longer-term and global actions. Computational limits require model designers to balance the reach and resolution of models. Some models, such as the Global Change Analysis Model, represent all energy sources with less resolution than models that focus on a single sector’s energy use. Unlike the Global Change Analysis Model, sectoral models focus on a portion of the energy sector with greater detail and resolution. This report presents the results of recent work to explore the differences and trade-offs among these approaches by comparing the Global Change Analysis Model with the sector-specific ReEDS, TEMPO, and Scout models. The report compares model structures and results and addresses their potential relevance and applications.